Quantitative Simulations

The setups may look diverse — but here is the shared exposure hiding beneath the surface: Highly correlated (>=0.7): GOOG-GOOGL (+1.00)

The probability that each technical setup closes in profit over ~3 weeks, out of 10,000 GBM simulations per stock: $QCOM: chance of profit ~57.7% within 15 days (median +2.5%) $AAPL: chance of profit ~67.6% within 15 days (median +2.5%) $NVDA: chance of profit ~60.4% within 15 days (median +2.3%) $GOOG: chance of profit ~73.0% within 15 days (median +4.5%) $GOOGL: chance of profit ~73.1% within 15 days (median +4.4%) (A statistical probability from the historical distribution — not a promise.)

Out of 3,000 scenarios on a default basket (no portfolio yet): Pessimistic scenario (5%): $95,729 Median scenario (50%): $117,975 (expected return +18.0%) Optimistic scenario (95%): $146,063 Probability of a loss by year-end: 9.3%

Analysis scope: a default basket (no portfolio yet) (value $100,000) Portfolio beta vs S&P500: 0.89 (calmer than the market) Annual volatility: 12.9% Daily VaR (95%): $1,336 - the maximum daily loss expected in 95% of cases High correlations: QQQ-XLK: +0.95, SPY-QQQ: +0.94, SPY-XLK: +0.87, SPY-XLF: +0.61, SPY-BTC-USD: +0.52

The setups may look diverse — but here is the shared exposure hiding beneath the surface: Highly correlated (>=0.7): NXPI-MCHP (+0.75)

The probability that each technical setup closes in profit over ~3 weeks, out of 10,000 GBM simulations per stock: $PFE: chance of profit ~56.9% within 15 days (median +1.0%) $ES: chance of profit ~55.7% within 15 days (median +0.8%) $QCOM: chance of profit ~57.6% within 15 days (median +2.4%) $PWR: chance of profit ~68.2% within 15 days (median +4.4%) $NXPI: chance of profit ~58.0% within 15 days (median +2.2%) $MCHP: chance of profit ~57.9% within 15 days (median +2.1%) $COHR: chance of profit ~69.3% within 15 days (median +9.7%) $DLR: chance of profit ~53.8% within 15 days (median +0.5%) $CTVA: chance of profit ~52.8% within 15 days (median +0.4%) $TDY: chance of profit ~60.3% within 15 days (median +1.5%) (A statistical probability from the historical distribution — not a promise.)

Out of 3,000 scenarios on a default basket (no portfolio yet): Pessimistic scenario (5%): $95,746 Median scenario (50%): $117,996 (expected return +18.0%) Optimistic scenario (95%): $146,091 Probability of a loss by year-end: 9.2%

Analysis scope: a default basket (no portfolio yet) (value $100,000) Portfolio beta vs S&P500: 0.89 (calmer than the market) Annual volatility: 12.9% Daily VaR (95%): $1,336 - the maximum daily loss expected in 95% of cases High correlations: QQQ-XLK: +0.95, SPY-QQQ: +0.94, SPY-XLK: +0.87, SPY-XLF: +0.61, SPY-BTC-USD: +0.53

The setups may look diverse — but here is the shared exposure hiding beneath the surface: Highly correlated (>=0.7): NXPI-MCHP (+0.75)

The probability that each technical setup closes in profit over ~3 weeks, out of 10,000 GBM simulations per stock: $PFE: chance of profit ~56.9% within 15 days (median +1.0%) $ES: chance of profit ~55.6% within 15 days (median +0.8%) $QCOM: chance of profit ~57.6% within 15 days (median +2.4%) $PWR: chance of profit ~68.2% within 15 days (median +4.4%) $NXPI: chance of profit ~58.0% within 15 days (median +2.2%) $MCHP: chance of profit ~57.8% within 15 days (median +2.1%) $COHR: chance of profit ~69.4% within 15 days (median +9.7%) $DLR: chance of profit ~53.9% within 15 days (median +0.5%) $CTVA: chance of profit ~52.7% within 15 days (median +0.3%) $TDY: chance of profit ~60.4% within 15 days (median +1.5%) (A statistical probability from the historical distribution — not a promise.)

Out of 3,000 scenarios on a default basket (no portfolio yet): Pessimistic scenario (5%): $95,864 Median scenario (50%): $118,148 (expected return +18.1%) Optimistic scenario (95%): $146,287 Probability of a loss by year-end: 9.1%

Analysis scope: a default basket (no portfolio yet) (value $100,000) Portfolio beta vs S&P500: 0.89 (calmer than the market) Annual volatility: 12.9% Daily VaR (95%): $1,336 - the maximum daily loss expected in 95% of cases High correlations: QQQ-XLK: +0.95, SPY-QQQ: +0.94, SPY-XLK: +0.87, SPY-XLF: +0.61, SPY-BTC-USD: +0.52

The setups may look diverse — but here is the shared exposure hiding beneath the surface: Highly correlated (>=0.7): MCHP-NXPI (+0.75)

The probability that each technical setup closes in profit over ~3 weeks, out of 10,000 GBM simulations per stock: $QCOM: chance of profit ~57.7% within 15 days (median +2.5%) $MCHP: chance of profit ~58.6% within 15 days (median +2.2%) $NXPI: chance of profit ~58.3% within 15 days (median +2.4%) $PWR: chance of profit ~68.2% within 15 days (median +4.4%) $DLR: chance of profit ~53.8% within 15 days (median +0.6%) $CTVA: chance of profit ~52.0% within 15 days (median +0.3%) $TDY: chance of profit ~58.7% within 15 days (median +1.4%) $GRMN: chance of profit ~56.2% within 15 days (median +1.1%) $VTRS: chance of profit ~69.4% within 15 days (median +3.9%) $EG: chance of profit ~51.5% within 15 days (median +0.2%) (A statistical probability from the historical distribution — not a promise.)

Out of 3,000 scenarios on a default basket (no portfolio yet): Pessimistic scenario (5%): $95,798 Median scenario (50%): $118,063 (expected return +18.1%) Optimistic scenario (95%): $146,177 Probability of a loss by year-end: 9.2%

Analysis scope: a default basket (no portfolio yet) (value $100,000) Portfolio beta vs S&P500: 0.89 (calmer than the market) Annual volatility: 12.9% Daily VaR (95%): $1,336 - the maximum daily loss expected in 95% of cases High correlations: QQQ-XLK: +0.95, SPY-QQQ: +0.94, SPY-XLK: +0.87, SPY-XLF: +0.61, SPY-BTC-USD: +0.53

The setups may look diverse — but here is the shared exposure hiding beneath the surface: Highly correlated (>=0.7): TXN-MCHP (+0.76), MCHP-NXPI (+0.75)

The probability that each technical setup closes in profit over ~3 weeks, out of 10,000 GBM simulations per stock: $SBUX: chance of profit ~54.8% within 15 days (median +0.9%) $ES: chance of profit ~55.6% within 15 days (median +0.8%) $COHR: chance of profit ~70.7% within 15 days (median +10.2%) $PWR: chance of profit ~68.2% within 15 days (median +4.4%) $QCOM: chance of profit ~57.0% within 15 days (median +2.1%) $TXN: chance of profit ~60.7% within 15 days (median +2.6%) $MCHP: chance of profit ~57.2% within 15 days (median +2.1%) $NXPI: chance of profit ~58.0% within 15 days (median +2.2%) $DLR: chance of profit ~54.4% within 15 days (median +0.6%) $TDY: chance of profit ~60.4% within 15 days (median +1.5%) (A statistical probability from the historical distribution — not a promise.)

Out of 3,000 scenarios on a default basket (no portfolio yet): Pessimistic scenario (5%): $95,688 Median scenario (50%): $117,922 (expected return +17.9%) Optimistic scenario (95%): $145,997 Probability of a loss by year-end: 9.3%

Analysis scope: a default basket (no portfolio yet) (value $100,000) Portfolio beta vs S&P500: 0.89 (calmer than the market) Annual volatility: 12.9% Daily VaR (95%): $1,336 - the maximum daily loss expected in 95% of cases High correlations: QQQ-XLK: +0.95, SPY-QQQ: +0.94, SPY-XLK: +0.87, SPY-XLF: +0.61, SPY-BTC-USD: +0.53

The setups may look diverse — but here is the shared exposure hiding beneath the surface: Highly correlated (>=0.7): MCHP-NXPI (+0.75)

The probability that each technical setup closes in profit over ~3 weeks, out of 10,000 GBM simulations per stock: $TDY: chance of profit ~60.0% within 15 days (median +1.6%) $SBUX: chance of profit ~54.4% within 15 days (median +0.8%) $PFE: chance of profit ~56.7% within 15 days (median +1.0%) $ES: chance of profit ~56.2% within 15 days (median +1.0%) $PWR: chance of profit ~67.8% within 15 days (median +4.2%) $MCHP: chance of profit ~57.8% within 15 days (median +2.1%) $QCOM: chance of profit ~56.3% within 15 days (median +2.0%) $NXPI: chance of profit ~58.0% within 15 days (median +2.2%) $DLR: chance of profit ~54.4% within 15 days (median +0.6%) $GRMN: chance of profit ~57.1% within 15 days (median +1.2%) (A statistical probability from the historical distribution — not a promise.)

Out of 3,000 scenarios on a default basket (no portfolio yet): Pessimistic scenario (5%): $95,677 Median scenario (50%): $117,909 (expected return +17.9%) Optimistic scenario (95%): $145,980 Probability of a loss by year-end: 9.3%

Analysis scope: a default basket (no portfolio yet) (value $100,000) Portfolio beta vs S&P500: 0.89 (calmer than the market) Annual volatility: 12.9% Daily VaR (95%): $1,336 - the maximum daily loss expected in 95% of cases High correlations: QQQ-XLK: +0.95, SPY-QQQ: +0.94, SPY-XLK: +0.87, SPY-XLF: +0.61, SPY-BTC-USD: +0.53

The setups may look diverse — but here is the shared exposure hiding beneath the surface: Highly correlated (>=0.7): NXPI-MCHP (+0.75)